Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 21.280676 23.253242 25.450560 28.105659 31.263241 34.946527 39.642842
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 18.476823 21.072339 24.193020 28.316255 33.779050 41.028795 51.898467
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 16.400624 19.266397 22.904497 28.047362 35.486514 46.560634 66.102893
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 15.003548 18.037876 22.061031 28.079483 37.493210 53.151999 86.185814
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 13.841623 16.933828 21.172715 27.806630 38.887187 59.268905 110.979519
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 12.908604 16.016119 20.393757 27.510704 40.106745 65.588231 144.590550
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 12.153877 15.260186 19.739451 27.269422 41.321112 72.517399 194.102034
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 11.534747 14.634656 19.198073 27.105907 42.616439 80.424937 274.603096
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 10.901528 13.934150 18.465158 26.492902 42.841079 85.785467 374.490991
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 10.706651 13.861599 18.698963 27.615877 47.085233 106.519034 984.042718
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 10.264467 13.380410 18.225127 27.352932 48.095356 117.656163 2676.707017
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 9.930083 13.040587 17.950845 27.428540 49.970212 134.818014 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 9.635811 12.749722 17.742506 27.625875 52.317948 158.843964 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 9.355103 12.462838 17.516922 27.758644 54.583213 188.340247 NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 9.032935 12.091237 17.114981 27.467348 55.542259 212.963269 NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 8.782456 11.821036 16.870835 27.484499 57.507202 254.435375 NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 8.511150 11.502683 16.517460 27.215242 58.476945 293.080031 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 8.257348 11.200774 16.173666 26.927174 59.322818 338.703051 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 8.028506 10.929524 15.868507 26.693277 60.323391 399.540031 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 7.824660 10.690677 15.608134 26.535024 61.593900 487.372775 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 7.579873 10.373614 15.184388 25.943236 60.996119 530.546001 NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 7.550584 10.416695 15.438403 27.026583 67.809497 1103.992226 NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 7.368433 10.192258 15.168363 26.772948 68.727905 1534.708275 NaN